Venue: Mandurah
Race 4: #4 Kombi Ackee – $4.60 – 3.5 Units
Consistent profile with strong place % and competitive time in a weak race.
Model Probability: 30%
Implied Probability: 22.2%
EV Edge: +35.0%
Race 5: #7 Just A Joker – $4.60 – 3 Units
Peaking at the right time and maps to get a clean run.
Model Probability: 27%
Implied Probability: 21.7%
EV Edge: +24.2%
Race 6: #3 Night Lighter – $1.50 – 5 Units
Elite win rate + dominant in this grade, simply outclasses these.
Model Probability: 74%
Implied Probability: 66.7%
EV Edge: +11.0%
Race 7: #3 Epicentre – $3.70 – 3 Units
Perfect box, strong recent form and ideal race setup.
Model Probability: 32%
Implied Probability: 27.0%
EV Edge: +18.4%
Race 8: #7 Wave Of Fun – $3.80 – 2.5 Units
Always around the mark, just needs clear running.
Model Probability: 29%
Implied Probability: 26.3%
EV Edge: +10.2%
Race 9: #1 Aeroplane Penny – $4.20 – 2.5 Units
Strong late splits and trending upward at the right time.
Model Probability: 28%
Implied Probability: 23.8%
EV Edge: +17.6%
Race 10: #1 Tycoon Zulu – $3.00 – 2.5 Units
Conditions suit and maps well in a very even race.
Model Probability: 38%
Implied Probability: 33.3%
EV Edge: +14.0%
Race 11: #1 South Crenshaw – $2.30 – 2 Units
Red box + race control gives him a clear edge here.
Model Probability: 48%
Implied Probability: 43.5%
EV Edge: +10.4%
Race 12: #1 Incredible Glory – $5.50 – 3 Units
Big value runner with proven ability at the track.
Model Probability: 26%
Implied Probability: 18.2%
EV Edge: +43.0%
- ?/9 tips correct
- Units out: 27
- Units returned:
- Units profit: +-